ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
On January 9, 2017, the Federal Housing Authority (FHA), run by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), announced a cut in the premium homebuyers pay for mortgage insurance. This policy change has the distinction of being one of the first, if not THE first, reversals of the post-Obama era (the L.A. Times reported … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in November for October, 2016. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was experiencing its first post-election pullback. I stayed focused on the strong housing data and treated the episode as a buying opportunity. Over a month later, the market is still ignoring the strong … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in September for August, 2016. At that time, iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the tail-end of an extended sell-off. I noted the irony of the acceleration of selling in the wake of a new home sales number that was the second-highest of this post-recession period. … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in September for August, 2016. At that time, iShares US Home Construction (ITB) started a notable divergence from the performance of the S&P 500 (SPY). That divergence widened in October with the S&P 500 losing 1.9% month-to-date and ITB tumbling 6.8%. The selling in ITB has been … Read more
SF is happy to build housing on Brisbane Baylands- 684 acres of vacant land. We all need to do our share for working families + environment. https://t.co/X1se1UuLwN — Jane Kim (@JaneKim) September 27, 2016 This was a tweet that launched a potential “housing war” on the Peninsula of the San Francisco Bay Area. I like … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in August for July, 2016. New home sales soaring to a fresh post-recession high made the big headline even as sentiment among home builders remained essentially flatline for the year. This time around, new home sales cooled off month-over-month as builder sentiment finally showed life with a … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in July for June, 2016. At the time, a disappointing GDP report sharply rejected the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) off a 9-year high. Fortunately, there was very little follow-through to the selling. When ITB rallied strongly on new home sales, the ETF recovered most of … Read more
Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its quarterly report on U.S. home prices for Q2 2016. Home prices rose 5.6% but each month in the quarter increased “only” 0.2% sequentially. This monthly pace represents a substantial slowdown from the first quarter where monthly gains were 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.8%. The FHFA speculates that … Read more
In past Housing Market Reviews, I observed a notable shift in housing activity from the West to the South. I have wondered aloud whether this disparity comes from economic choices moving households from relatively expensive markets in the West to relatively more affordable ones in the South. It turns out the IRS has some of … Read more
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) delivered some history-making news in its quarterly Metropolitan Median Area Prices and Affordability and Housing Affordability Index for the second quarter of 2016. According to the NAR “…for the first time ever, a metro area – San Jose, California – had a median single-family home price above $1 million.” … Read more