T2108 Update (December 11, 2015) – Oversold But Dangerous

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Market Jitters Evident in the Reaction to Australian Jobs Data

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 10, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On December 10th, the Australin Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported Australia’s jobs data for November, 2015. The results were in-line with existing trends: {snip} Adjusted for seasonality, the unemployment rate decreased … Read more

T2108 Update (December 3, 2015) – The Draghi Drubbing Drives Follow-Through Selling

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Getting Ready to Tip-Toe Around the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The European Central Bank (ECB) next makes a statement on monetary policy on December 3, 2015. The market is apparently eagerly anticipating an announcement from ECB President Mario Draghi that delivers … Read more

Small Statement Changes Bolster Dovish Policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rolled out the copy and paste machine for its December statement on monetary policy. I found just two snippets of differences from the November statement that are worth noting: This time around, the RBA fingered weaker demand as a driver of lower commodity prices. In the last statement, supply, … Read more

T2108 Update (November 20, 2015) – A Surprisingly Strong And Contrary Week for the S&P 500

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (November 18, 2015) – The S&P 500 Flips the Script

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Is A New Storm Finally Brewing for the Australian Dollar?

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 24, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) “But lest there be any uncertainty about this, let me be clear, again, that the exchange rate remains high by historical standards…we think that investors are underestimating the likelihood of a … Read more

The Australian Dollar Rallies Sharply On Strong November Jobs Report

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 11, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Statistics Australia reported a large jump in jobs for the month of October, 2015. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 6.2% to 5.9%. This is the lowest unemployment rate … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Sets the Stage for the Next Rate Cut(s)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its November decision for monetary policy with a very familiar template. The most important part of the statement came at the end where the RBA made it clear rate cuts are on its collective mind (emphasis mine): “At today’s meeting the Board judged that the prospects for an … Read more