ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
In the background of the growing euphoria in the U.S. over imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the growing weight of the steady descent of the economy in the eurozone. European Weakness The week started with the stock market’s first opportunity to respond to the declared truce in the trade war between the … Read more
It was one of those trades that works until it doesn’t. Ever since the U.S. dollar index (DXY) broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) back in April, 2018, the index provided a lot of bullish swing trade opportunities. In the early stages of the rally, DXY pivoted around its 20DMA and then its … Read more
AT40 = 63.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is keeping the faith. The previous week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represented well the … Read more
AT40 = 76.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st overbought day)AT200 = 28.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 2-month high)VIX = 17.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary It was just a week ago when the stock market surged to overbought levels in a bullish move. AT40 … Read more
AT40 = 20.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 13 days in oversold territory)AT200 = 14.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 21.4Short-term Trading Call: bullish (with caveats all over again) Commentary All oversold periods must end – it is just a matter of how and … Read more
AT40 = 35.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 31.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The bears took back complete control of the market. Friday, they sent up the warning signal with the screeching of … Read more
AT40 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market is not quite out the (short-term) woods yet. Last Wednesday I pointed out why the latest bearish divergence forced … Read more
AT40 = 57.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I discussed the early signs of a potential run-up driven by the “fear of missing … Read more
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming last Friday that seemed to reassure financial markets. The S&P 500 (SPY) finally closed at a new all-time high, and the U.S. dollar cooled off a bit again. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Source: TradingView.com Fundamentally, the speech contained no new news, but it did reaffirm … Read more
Gold, and by extension the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has had a rough year. However, based on a historic flip in speculative positioning in gold futures, a bottom is likely in for GLD. According to the tweet and chart below, the net speculative positioning in gold recently went net negative for the first time in … Read more