A Mystifying Rate Cut By the Reserve Bank of Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tonight (morning of May 7th in Australia), the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rate to 2.75% whereas the consensus assumed that rates would stay steady at 3.0%. While the … Read more

Already Time to Shift Into Neutral on the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 12, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Next week on May 6th (May 7th in Australia), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make its next monetary policy decision. The Australian dollar has shown marked weakness going into … Read more

Poor Employment Report Only Slows Australian Dollar’s Breakout

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 12, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, we learned that the Australian trade balance for February was much better than expected, -178M AUD versus expectations for -1B AUD and -1.2B AUD for January. Additionally, retail sales … Read more

Week of Major Currency Shifts Flips Me Bullish Australian and British Currencies

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} The market seemed to convulse on the notion that the Fed could actually end asset purchases but seemed to ignore the conditional of a much improved labor market and improving … Read more

T2108 Update (May 9, 2012) – Overbought Conditions Extend Further As Currencies Flash Major Signals

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Marginally Concedes To A Brighter Outlook

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 4, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) For many months, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been rolling out the same story of a peak in commodity prices, resource investment, and terms of trade. This month’s monetary policy … Read more

T2108 Update (April 17, 2013) – S&P 500 Retests 50DMA and Other Positive Signs Even As Apple Drops Into the Red Zone

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

T2108 Update (April 15, 2013) – Quasi-Oversold After A Chaotic Day

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

A Stealth Rally for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 13, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) It took a record low on the GBP/USD currency pair [British pound (FXB) versus the Australian dollar (FXA)] for me to realize that the Australian dollar has been in “stealth rally” … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Rates, Leaving Currency To Drift Lower

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 4, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In its latest statement on monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said nothing new. The RBA left rates unchanged at 3% while at the same time making it clear … Read more