ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: For those desperately looking for the “Fed pivot”, today’s Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy disappointed with a validation of the breakdown leading into the Fed meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was almost unrelenting from start to finish with his efforts to stay on message: inflation remains too high, and the Fed … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Pricing pressures are apparently NOT easing just yet. The August CPI report turned “peak Fed” into “fear the Fed” all over again. Instead of falling, core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) increased a whopping 0.6% month-over-month. This surge pushed the 12-month core inflation rate up from July’s 5.9% to August’s 6.3%. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The confluence of market-moving news the last two days of the week resolved into a stock market looking incrementally healthier. A synchronized breakout above resistance at respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) flipped the script on the negative sentiment that dominated trading going into last week. While weakness in the U.S. dollar from … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Even sellers in a bear market exhaust themselves at some point. That point happened to coincide with the latest product announcements from Apple Inc (AAPL). So once again, AAPL finds itself sitting right at the focal point of an important market juncture. Across the major indices, the day’s relief rally generated a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The recession that Wall Street wants remains elusive according to the August jobs report. The data show the labor participation rate increased with job growth and a minimal increase in the unemployment rate: a recipe for the (mythical?) economic soft landing. The reaction in the stock market reflected the duality in interpreting … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Now I see why there was so little fanfare about the end of the bear market. Last week’s trading looks like a warm-up for a bear market comeback. The S&P 500 and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) printed bearish confirmations of resistance at their respective 200-day moving averages (DMAs) (the blue … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Market breadth was last this high 17 months ago. At that time, my favorite technical indicator was on its way down as a part of another buy-the-dip moment for the pandemic-inspired rally in the stock market. This time, market breadth is sitting right on top of the threshold of overbought conditions. The … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Once again, Apple Inc (AAPL) became a poster child of market sentiment. When AAPL pulled away from resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below), the move looked like a tease with bear market conditions still in force. Two weeks later, AAPL emerged vindicated as a 3.3% post-earnings gain … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The synchronized breakout looked impossible just yesterday. Apple (AAPL) reversed course with a 2.1% loss that seemed to confirm recent strength was just a bear market tease. Rumors spread through the market that Apple will announce a hiring slowdown and reduced spending. Today, all was forgotten as the major indices all enjoyed … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week’s scene from the summer of discontent included hand-wringing over the June inflation report. However, almost “quietly”, Apple Inc (APPL) pulled off a technical breakout contrary to the current bear market (especially for technology stocks). The previous week, AAPL confirmed a breakout above resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the … Read more