Fed Waffling and Trade War Expansion Reject Market from Overbought – Above the 40 (August 1, 2019)

The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 3.1% for the week. Buyers just barely pushed the index off its intraday low to on Friday to close above 50DMA support.

AT40 = 41.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.6 (high of 20.1)Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A Pause of Recognition I am writing about financial markets at a time when there is renewed pain … Read more

Overbought Conditions Remain Elusive As Market Wavers Ahead of the Fed – Above the 40 (July 19, 2019)

AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = ~52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the S&P 500 (SPY) made a new all-time, and I was expecting a trip into overbought conditions. AT40 … Read more

Stock Market Trades Near Overbought As the Good Equals Bad Formula Blurs – Above the 40 (July 5, 2019)

Overbought conditions loom as earnings season approaches, and the stock market eagerly anticipates rate cuts.

AT40 = 68.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 13.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Good news is bad news….oops, nevermind The search for … Read more

Rate Cut Promises Rescued A Stock Market Near Oversold – Above the 40 (June 7, 2019)

AT40 = 38.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 18.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary From opening at the edge of oversold trading conditions to closing on near panic buying, last week was a wild week! … Read more

Stock Market Indices Break South On Expanded Border Tensions – Above the 40 (May 31, 2019)

AT40 = 23.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit a low of 20.7%)AT200 = 36.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2 1/2 month low)VIX = 18.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary So much for the potential for follow-through on bullish divergence! Perhaps the failure is … Read more

Oversold Conditions Loom As Indices Conveniently Test 200DMA Supports – Above the 40 (May 29, 2019)

AT40 = 25.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 39.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 17.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, broke through 30% and closed at 25.2%. My favorite technical indicator is … Read more

Bearish Resistance Won the Week Against Major Indices – More Churn Ahead: Above the 40 (May 17, 2019)

AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A day after the major indices flipped from bullish support to bearish resistance, buyers rallied these indices through resistance. It was a tenuous … Read more

Above the 40 (May 15, 2019) – Stock Market Flips from Bullish Support to Bearish Resistance As Signals Compete

AT40 = 43.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 47.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Over the weekend, I wrote about a “constructive stock market” as a reference to the stock market’s consistently positive responses to U.S. vs … Read more

How to Pick A Spot to Buy Uber Shares

The IPO for Uber (UBER) has fallen out the bed. The company priced its IPO at $45, opened at $42, and closed at $41.57. UBER’s one-day total loss in value from the IPO price was apparently the largest in history. For a moment, UBER looked like it could stabilize around its poor first day. Unfortunately, … Read more

Above the 40 (April 26, 2019) – Stock Market Highs Continue Cradling Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 61.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral (change from bearish) Stock Market Commentary The week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represents well the state of the stock market: … Read more