ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: Revisions to the report on GDP (gross domestic product) typically do not generate reactions in the financial markets, especially the third revision. So I completely look past the third revision to Q3 GDP when I concluded the path of least resistance offered a reprieve. The revision revealed economic conditions were even better … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Yesterday’s surge in the Japanese yen (FXY) may have exhausted enough sellers to clear the path for some holiday cheer in the stock market. Suddenly, the market seemed to transition from the heavy burdens of a stubbornly hawkish Fed to the alluring hopes from a lack of (scheduled) negative catalysts for the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: A week ago, I cautioned that “the tenuous positioning is further weakened by a breakout of volatility and significant deterioration in the market breadth indicators.” The November CPI report showed the slightest surprise possible and faked out the stock market on the way to another hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve on … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: After some good economic data, the stock market looks quite wary ahead of the coming Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. After two swift down days to start the week, the stock market did its best job clinging to support and the lows of the week. The tenuous positioning is further weakened by … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: I expressed my surprise after the stock market soared in response to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s inflation-fighting speech. I thought Powell simply reiterated known information with more reminders of the Fed’s inflation-fighting commitment. Since then, two strong economic reports in a row have sent the stock market into rapid retreat from that … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Social unrest from fresh COVID lockdowns in China are already a distant memory for the U.S. stock market. Just as quickly as the stock market bearishly failed once again to hold overbought trading conditions, market breadth flipped the script to surge and rush back to overbought. Buyers and bulls celebrated a speech … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I described how a housing recession was reflected in the worsening housing data, including the latest report on U.S. GDP. While new home sales made another surprise bounce in October, the rest of the housing data continued to worsen in the month. However, a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The people of China have now suffered three years of various draconian lockdowns meant to contain the spread of COVID-19. The latest lockdowns remind a suffering populace that there remains no end in sight for this extended kind of public health authoritarianism. Apparently, the frustrations are boiling over enough to motivate people … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The holiday-shortened week brought a reluctant return to overbought trading conditions. Buyers nudged the indices higher inch by inch after Monday’s slightly down open. The Fed-speak that returned the stock market to bearish trading conditions faded out of view. Looking ahead, the promise of seasonal strength once again beckons reluctant buyers. If … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard did his best to dissuade financial markets from optimistic interpretations of recent softish inflation reports. The press release summarizing recent remarks was enough to send chills in the Fed pause/plateau/pivot theorists: “the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be … Read more