ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The bulls win big. The summer of loving stocks continued with the bulls overcoming a major hurdle: the overbought threshold for market breadth. After two failed attempts in the last month, the third attempt became the charm. The charm received a strong endorsement from fresh breakouts by the S&P 500 and the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks is staring down its second major test just two weeks after its first major test. Like the first test, the latest test is happening in the wake of the stock market’s failure to break through the overbought threshold on market breadth. Unlike the first test, the important … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks survived its first major test. The numbers for the first half of the year put an exclamation on a rally that has defied most expectations. The S&P 500 (SPY) had its 12th best first half since at least 1933 (per Cater Braxton Worth) with a 15.9% gain … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The summer of loving stocks is facing its first real test. In the middle of the week, the rally finally failed at the threshold of overbought market breadth. The stock market closed the week with market breadth confirming the end of the primary rally and the start of an important test of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The bulls were right at the frontier of overbought trading. The threshold defining overbought market breadth held firm and punched sentiment out of bullish territory. While this development is typically bearish, the summer of loving stocks still has uptrends supporting the potential for buying dips at moving averages. This is a time … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week started strong with Goldman Sachs (GS). Analysts there looked beyond the coming Federal Reserve meeting and hiked their year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4500. The index quickly moved half the remaining distance and opened the door for more price chasing by analysts before 2023 hits the halfway … Read more
The Federal Reserve gave tacit approval to the unfolding summer of loving stocks. In its June decision on monetary policy, not only did the Fed hold interest rates steady, but also it rolled out improved overall forecasts for the economy. GDP growth for this year went from 0.4% to 1.0%, presumably lowering the odds for … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Market breadth almost reached overbought trading territory last week. The Federal Reserve is issuing yet another missive on monetary policy this coming Wednesday. The market’s script is arranged for the potential drama of a collision between the euphoria of overbought trading and a Federal Reserve that is eager to moderate the market … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The summer of loving stocks may have begun. In a list of debt ceiling winners and losers, Vox failed to list the stock market as one of the biggest winners. The lingering and residual angst accompanying the manufactured drama of the debt ceiling released its hold on the market’s bias to go … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The seasonal trade on home builders ended in the middle of one of those critical junctures for these stocks and the housing market in general. Mortgage rates are done coming down for now and could break to new highs as the Federal Reserve continues hiking short-term rates to battle inflation. … Read more