The Stock Market Stretches Into An Extended Overbought Rally – Above the 40 (December 4, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 79.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #10 overbought) AT200 = 77.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (7 1/2 year high) VIX = 20.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the overbought stock market stretched for a … Read more

A Bullish Kind of Bearish Call on the Stock Market

The stock market has enjoyed overbought trading conditions for the last 13 trading days and 14 of the last 15. I consider the stock market overbought when AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), trades above 70%. Overbought periods are times of mixed feelings. The stock market tends … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Stretching for a Fresh Rally – Above the 40 (November 27, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 79.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #10 overbought) AT200 = 76.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and holding breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 20.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Instead of Monday, … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Bang and a Whimper – Above the 40 (November 20, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 76.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #6 overbought) AT200 = 71.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and holding breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 23.7 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market … Read more

Overbought Trading Resumes With Fresh Momentum for the Reopen Trade – Above the 40 (November 13, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 74.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #1 overbought, 3 of last 4 days ooverbought) AT200 = 68.1%% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and holding breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 23.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral … Read more

Overbought Trading Conditions Emerge from Rush for Pandemic Recovery Stocks – Above the 40 (November 10, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 71.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #1 overbought) AT200 = 66.9%% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and confirmed breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 24.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The week of … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Celebrates New Fed Inflation Policy – Above the 40 (August 28, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) is back to overbought (above 70%).

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 71.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 7 overbought trading days)AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 23.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week was not a good time to be sitting on the sidelines … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Faces Down the Stimulus Stalemate – Above the 40 (August 14, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 76.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (6th day overbought)AT200 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 22.1Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary While the politicians in Washington D.C. play a game of chicken with the economy, the … Read more

Stock Market Hits Overbought with A Bullish Divergence – Above the 40 (August 7, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 72.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day overbought)AT200 = 42.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 22.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The last overbought period ended in June. The volatility index (VIX) did not drop much … Read more

Stock Market Risk and Reward from Rising VIX and End of Overbought Period

AT40 (T2108) closed at 68.7% and once again dropped out of overbought trading conditions.

The financial markets have presented numerous extremes during the coronavirus pandemic. I rely on the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), aka AT40 (T2108), as a measure of oversold (below 20%) and overbought (above 70%) extremes in the stock market. In just three months, the stock market went from printing … Read more