ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
I had high hopes for Meritage Homes (MTH) before and after the company reported earnings last month. Home builders were leading the market into a big sell-off, and I expected MTH to set the record straight on the health of the housing market. The headline earnings were solid but not quite inspiring enough. The stock … Read more
The seasonal trade on home builders for 2017/2018 showed its first sign of trouble when the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) fell sharply off its 10+ year high in January on the same day the S&P 500 (SPY) set a new (and its last) all-time high. Almost two weeks later, in early February, the under-performance … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in January, 2018 for December, 2017. At the time, I described the ominous breakdown of the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB), but I was not yet ready to connect the dots on the bearish implications. I am now. ITB has continued its breakdown by first severely … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in December, 2017 for November, 2017. At the time, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) was still recovering from a small dip caused by an earnings report from Toll Brothers (TOL) that disappointed the market. Housing data were strong and pointed to on-going bullishness. January launched … Read more
AT40 = 23.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 47.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 30.0 (19.7% decrease, intraday high of 50.3) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The first oversold period in about two years ended after just one day. As a reminder, … Read more