ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
A month ago, Trulia published an article on the potential for renting out the spare rooms of Baby Boomers to millennials called “Boom-mates: How Empty Nesters Could Help Ease a Housing Shortage.” It was an interesting twist on the concept of multi-generational housing that generated a lot of related headlines. I took interest in the … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in June, 2017 for May, 2017. The month from there was relatively sedate for home builders. For example, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) went absolutely nowhere with August’s burst out the gate providing a bit of a gain. The good news is that the uptrend … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in May, 2017 for April, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was testing support at its uptrending 50-day moving average (DMA) for the third time in May. ITB bounced nicely from there, but it just suffered its second largest one-day loss of the … Read more
{updated to include commentary on The Guggenheim Canadian Energy Income ETF (ENY)} On Monday, June 12, 2017, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Carolyn A. Wilkins delivered a speech at the Asper School of Business in Winnipeg, Manitoba that was firmly bullish on the Canadian economy. The market’s reaction was swift and equally … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in April, 2017 for March, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the high end of almost two months of churn which included a new 10-year high. ITB has not hit “escape velocity” from its price where the U.S. Federal Reserve last … Read more
AT40 = 42.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.0 (volatility index) – a 17.9% decrease Short-term Trading Call: neutral (bullish only after the latest Trump Turmoil reverses OR oversold conditions, potentially bearish upon a retest of … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in March, 2017 for February, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the bottom of what turned out to be a very shallow pullback from a near 10-year high. The subsequent recovery has been grinding and slow, but ITB now trades above … Read more
Sellers once again lost their advantage as the S&P 500 (SPY) came roaring right back from its ugliest close since the U.S. Presidential election. The bullishness on the day was on full display with the number of new all-time highs well out-pacing new all-time lows by 181 to 79. While the S&P 500 (SPY) still … Read more
With the technicals on the stock market weakening ever so subtly, I concluded that now might be a good time to lock in the rest of my profits on the seasonal trade on home builders. However, an upgrade from RBC on Toll Brothers (TOL) breathed new life into the home builder rally. TOL benefited mightily … Read more
Australia just celebrated setting a (modern era) world record for the longest string of quarters without a recession. Yet Australia’s economic backdrop appears to be wavering. This week’s labor force survey could provide a critical point of relief or pile on yet more concern. Iron Ore’s Latest Plunge I begin with iron ore – Australia’s … Read more