ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 63.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is keeping the faith. The previous week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represented well the … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary In the March Housing Market Review, I described how the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was breaking out despite an unimpressive collection of housing data (in the aggregate and trendwise). Last month, I updated my analysis of the seasonal trading strategy for home builders and pointed out the historical tendency for … Read more
(Updated on January 3, 2023 in “How Home Builder Stocks Trade In A Seasonal Pattern“) The Spring selling season is a critical period for the housing market and usually delivers peak activity for the year. This seasonal pattern forms a notable pivot for the stocks of home builders. These stocks typically rally on the wings … Read more
The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has essentially reversed its entire breakdown that began in October. ITB is now up 24.4% for the year and up 30.9% from the December low. These gains outpace the S&P 500’s (SPY) rebound of 15.2% for the year and 22.8% since the December low. This out-performance means that … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary In the January Housing Market Review, I described a pause in the bad housing data long enough to allow the stocks of home builders to rally sharply with the stock market. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was testing resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA); that moment turned out to … Read more
AT40 = 52.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2+ month low)AT200 = 42.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 13.7 Short-term Trading Call: bearish (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The previous Friday’s trading action provided delayed confirmation of my short-term bearish trading call. Last week delivered … Read more
On March 25th, CNBC’s Fast Money discussed very active options trading in the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (ITB). Call option volume was triple put option volume. Of note, some trader purchased 5000 April 12 $35 weekly calls with ITB trading at $34.60 and just under its 200-day moving average (DMA). That trader … Read more
AT40 = 45.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2+ month low)AT200 = 38.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.5 (20.9% gain)Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Friday’s trading action provided delayed confirmation of my short-term bearish trading call. The week previous to the last, … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary {This post marks the last one impacted by the previous U.S. government shutdown. I delayed publishing until I gathered a complete set of January’s housing market data. At the time of writing February’s data are rolling in}. In the January Housing Market Review, I described a pause in the bad housing data … Read more
AT40 = 54.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 38.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.1Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary The above tweet begins the dilemmas that lay ahead for short-term trading after I first flipped bearish ahead of Thursday’s selling. First, I … Read more