ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary Stocks stumbled their way through a week fraught with hopes and fears for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. With looming oversold conditions, the most significant technical event occurred with a bearish engulfing right under important resistance levels for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The relief buying that … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The annual Jackson Hole confab of central bankers starts this coming Thursday. Almost like technical poetry, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are back to the highs directly preceding Jackson Hole 2022. Depending on your perspective, this Jackson Hole redux either represents a bullish confirmation of the market’s resilience after 18 months … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of stocks looks like it is winding down as trading dynamics transition into the stock market’s most dangerous months. The complete reversal of July’s gains on the major indices represents the most ominous sign of the transition. Technology stocks in particular have flipped from rocketships to anchors weighing on the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A week ago, buyers did their best to push against topping stock indices by restarting overbought conditions. That overbought period lasted just 3 days as a Fitch downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt freshly cooled the summer of loving stocks. The resulting selling confirmed topping conditions and greased the skids of the stock … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market delivered a gift on Friday as I scrambled to de-risk following the Bank of Japan’s drama on monetary policy. I braced for selling into bearish pressure and instead was pleasantly greeted by a broad push higher for stocks from the open. After the dust settled on the day, I … Read more
Stock Market Commentary On Thursday, good economic news scared Wall Street yet again. Initial jobless claims came in well below “expectations” and set off a cascade of reactions. Interest rates shot up and the stock market dropped down. The stubborn strength of the labor market allows the Federal Reserve to stay hawkish and keep its … Read more
Almost a year ago, I claimed that investing in ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) was little different than speculating on initial public offerings in the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO). I was both right and wrong. On the way down, IPO far out-performed ARKK in 2021 and 2022. However, ARKK has benefited more than IPO in this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market pushed into overbought conditions last week. After one follow-through day, small caps wilted and dragged down market breadth toward the overbought threshold. That key setback raises the stakes of the current earnings period. I will try to look through the likely “chop” in the trading action, to identify on-going … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks is staring down its second major test just two weeks after its first major test. Like the first test, the latest test is happening in the wake of the stock market’s failure to break through the overbought threshold on market breadth. Unlike the first test, the important … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The summer of loving stocks is facing its first real test. In the middle of the week, the rally finally failed at the threshold of overbought market breadth. The stock market closed the week with market breadth confirming the end of the primary rally and the start of an important test of … Read more