ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market has swung so much between hope and despair that it looks like a dog chasing its tail down a hill. Accordingly, “The Market Breadth” has careened from soaring headlines to danger signs. A steep downtrend has remained in place since the last peak in August. Since that time 200-day … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Riddle me this. How many months does it take for a “lagging indicator” to reflect reality? The labor market has defied expectations almost all year, and during most of that time it seems like too many pundits have dismissed the data as a lagging indicator of some long lost economic reality. The … Read more
Over a month ago, I uncovered a sunny thesis about a bottom for the ARK funds. The timing of that post happened to be the exact top of the cycle for the ARK funds. Moreover, the S&P 500 (SPY) was trading just under its 200-day moving average (DMA) (the blue in the chart below). Once … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Pricing pressures are apparently NOT easing just yet. The August CPI report turned “peak Fed” into “fear the Fed” all over again. Instead of falling, core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) increased a whopping 0.6% month-over-month. This surge pushed the 12-month core inflation rate up from July’s 5.9% to August’s 6.3%. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The confluence of market-moving news the last two days of the week resolved into a stock market looking incrementally healthier. A synchronized breakout above resistance at respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) flipped the script on the negative sentiment that dominated trading going into last week. While weakness in the U.S. dollar from … Read more