ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Alphabet, Inc (GOOG) was my favorite stock in my generative AI trade. No more. After OpenAI announced SearchGPT, GOOG fell 3.0%. The decline followed a 5.0% post-earnings loss and confirmed a bearish breakdown below the 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line in the chart below). While SearchGPT is still a prototype, even the idea … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week further emphasized the continuation of notable divergence from Q2 to Q3. This time, soft inflation data caused a surge in rate cut anticipation that in turn drove a significant rotation away from big cap growth and tech stocks and toward small caps and a whole host of other rate sensitive … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The second quarter of the year ended with notable divergence. The third quarter picked up where the second quarter left off. Q3 took the Q2 baton of notable divergence, sending big cap stocks ever higher while leaving most of the market further behind. The jobs report seemed to be strong enough and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 3.0% since summer trading began the day after the Memorial Day weekend. If not for the poor market breadth, the rally would look like a repeat of last year’s summer of loving stocks (sorry sell in May and go away folks). Semiconductor stocks, particularly NVIDIA Corporation … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The week’s trading was punctuated by a single day with an all-time high on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ in the wake of strong readings on the May S&P Global US Services PMI and the May ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. Unfortunately, that price milestone failed to change the contour of market breath … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The simple and quiet breakout for the stock market found follow-through last week. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hit fresh all-time highs during the week. The April CPI (consumer price index) report paved the way on Wednesday’s all-time highs. A softer than “expected” number revived hopes for a rate cut … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I saw a simple test for distinguishing bearish and bullish signals after META’s post-earnings swoon last month. A quick rebound following failed tests at resistance complicated the picture. The price technicals and dynamics returned to simple as a synchronized yet quiet breakout unfolded last week across the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Can a bullish divergence create a bottom for stocks? The stock market ended last week with an emphatic “YES!” A wild week got treacherous after Thursday’s META pricequake. Investors rushed for the exits after Meta Platforms (META) reported earnings. The sympathy selling went far and wide. Fortunately, earnings from Alphabet (GOOG) and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week was a week like few other for the volatility index, the VIX. In my last Market Breadth I made the case for the VIX mattering again. A VIX follow-through demonstrated even more strength and resilience. The resulting closing high for the year is a firmer bearish signal for the stock … Read more
Stock Market Commentary NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) confirmed a double-top with today’s 3.4% loss. For only the sixth time this year, NVDA closed below its uptrending support at the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line below). Three of these closes have come in the last three days. The stock is now within “inches” of confirming … Read more