ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Japanese yen (FXY) is the one major currency that has been notably weaker than the U.S. dollar for most of the past month. USD/JPY peaked in December, 2016, but it looks like the sell-off bottomed out in April. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This yen weakness has been particularly evident against strong currencies, like the euro (FXE), … Read more
A year ago, speculators accumulated net long contracts on gold that exceeded anything seen since at least 2008. Starting in late 2015, silver speculators set several such records with the latest set just three months ago. Now, speculators in gold and silver are in full retreat. Net longs seem headed for zero for both precious … Read more
I greatly under-estimated the confidence of the Bank of Canada (BoC) when I mapped out the possibilities for a currency market that highly anticipated a rate hike from the Bank. In its latest statement on monetary policy, the BoC increased its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75%. The Bank … Read more
Going into last week’s report on Canadian employment, currency speculators retreated further from what was a record net short position against the Canadian dollar (FXC) less than two months prior. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders This retreat is occurring in conjunction with a consistent strengthening in the Canadian dollar. For example, USD/CAD peaked in … Read more
AT40 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Diabolically, the stock market has put my head on the proverbial swivel. I earlier noted how the NASDAQ in particular … Read more