ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The dollar index gained 0.75% on Friday as another phase of fears of Greece sent folks out the euro and into U.S. dollars. The 50-day moving average (DMA) has held as near-perfect support but Friday’s move has the shape of a bounce looking for follow-through. *Charts created using TeleChart: Follow-through from here, like a new … Read more
The dollar has been one of the weaker currencies amongst the major industrial trading partners. Thanks to coordinated intervention, the Japanese yen has managed to take over the mantle from the dollar in the race to the bottom. The weekly chart below shows that the dollar’s rally against the yen stopped cold as it approached … Read more
It appears that coordinated currency intervention has accomplished what unilateral intervention could not – initiate a sustained weakening in the Japanese yen. When the Bank of Japan promised “powerful monetary easing” I quipped: The wordsmiths were working overtime. The BoJ clearly wants to fire as strong a warning as possible to those who insist on … Read more
NOW things get even more interesting for the U.S. dollar. In dramatic fashion, a tremendous surge in buying in the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen shortly after the close of the U.S. market on Wednesday set the dollar hurtling through its long-term support line. This break was long in the making and something I … Read more
Tuesday’s expected gap down and steady buyback created a LOT of amazing charts. Many stocks I have reviewed bounced with picture-perfect accuracy off key support levels like 50DMAs and 200DMAs. The chart of the dollar index also caught my attention (as it so often does). For the past two days, the U.S. dollar has clung … Read more
The Federal Reserve meets and decides monetary policy on Tuesday right in the middle of the most tumultuous time for global financial markets perhaps since the March, 2009 lows. As the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is furiously printing money to buttress its financial system and promote calm, I fully expect the Fed to issue a … Read more
Once again, long-term support has successfully held for the dollar. The options market revealed that players were moving in anticipation of this bounce, but some observers were caught trying to use fundamentals to explain the action. Since the payroll number was the biggest news on Friday, it seemed players were bullish on the dollar because … Read more
On Friday, CNBC reported that on that day options players placed large bets bullish on the dollar: “The options market is gearing up for a bull run in the dollar after February’s non-farm payrolls showed improvement in the U.S. jobs picture. Options traders saw sizeable downside put buying in the EUR/USD…Before Friday’s payrolls data, the … Read more
The dollar approached critical support last week and neatly bounced just as I had hoped and expected. However, as I examine the technical prospects for an extended rally, I cannot shake a resurgent sense of bearishness about the dollar. The daily chart shows some pretty tough overhead resistance awaits any further rally in the dollar: … Read more
After scanning through the latest quarterly release of the “Statement of Monetary Policy” from the Reserve Bank of Australia, I was reminded that currency traders are trying to prepare for eventual rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE): “While financial markets continue to expect the US federal funds … Read more