ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
What has changed in the two months it took for silver to stampede its way up $15 (a 43% gain) and back? Did the Federal Reserve raise rates? Did the Federal Reserve threaten the market with rate hikes? Did the housing market rebound sharply, generating an expectation for higher rates? Did inflation expectations adjust sharply? … Read more
With the S&P 500 hitting fresh 3-year highs this week, the index is poised to recapture the previous uptrend that was interrupted by March’s double calamities of the Japan earthquake and hostilities in Libya. The stock market is overbought with T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), at a … Read more
Dangerous Views of Volatility: Pay attention to the VIX, but don't just follow the crowd – Barrons.com The market remains schizophrenic. One day, stock prices tumble because Standard & Poor's questions the credit rating of the United States, and investors panic and sell and fret, and the front pages of many newspapers are apocalyptic. The … Read more
It seems the Federal Reserve may maintain some excuse to keep printing money. Hundreds of billions printed in the name of economic recovery and inflation can be seen almost everywhere except the housing market, one of two of the Fed’s main targets – the other being employment. (See “Inflation Watch” for running highlights of stories … Read more
In late February, I lamented that TBT, the Pro Shares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF, was careening toward a retest of the 200-day moving average (DMA) that it would lose. After three more weeks, the anticipated retest finally occurred, and TBT survived. *Chart created using TeleChart: The retest of the 200DMA was a great reminder … Read more