The Commodity Crash Accelerates: A New Juncture for Buying Gold

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) This month’s acceleration in the now 4-year sell-off in commodities seems to indicate that markets are getting serious about bracing for a tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve. I have mainly … Read more

The Fed Aligns With Other Central Banks On Explaining Oil’s Decline and Its Economic Impact

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 25, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) As every other major central bank has done, the Federal Reserve has taken a crack at estimating the economic impact of the collapse in oil prices. In its semi-annual report to … Read more

Using the Fed’s Report On Economic Well-Being To Gauge Prospects for the Housing Market

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On May 27th, the Federal Reserve Board published the second annual results of its Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). {snip} Based on the Fed’s survey results, I concluded that … Read more

Trying Not to Outsmart the Dollar Trend

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 31, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This quote was buried in footnote #14 of Janet Yellen’s speech at a research conference called “The New Normal Monetary Policy” sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. … Read more

A Case for News Sensitivity and Unreliable Liquidity As Early Warning Signs from Markets

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Central bankers continue to warn financial markets to properly price in risk. On March 13th, Chris Salmon, the Executive Director of Markets at the Bank of England (BoE) continued the … Read more