This Time Is Likely Different for the S&P 500 With Rising Margin Debt

A recent article in Business Insider by Jesse Felder from TheFelderReport.com raised a loud alarm bell over rising margin debt levels in the U.S. stock market (see “A closely followed indicator says a 20% drop in stocks could be coming soon“). The article used the following chart as part of an analysis concluding that a … Read more

T2108 Update (March 29, 2016) – Yellen Punches the Market’s Refresh Button

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The British Pound Reverses Latest Brexit Fears Even As Speculators Press Shorts

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 13, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) When I last wrote about the British pound (FXB), the currency was reaching the bottom of its latest downdraft. I did not know the bottom was near, but I did claim … Read more

Housing Market Review – A Struggle for Rebirth Ahead of Spring (February, 2016)

The last Housing Market Review covered data released in January, 2016. At the time, I warily looked at a nervous market and insisted that the steep decline in the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) and individual home builder stocks presented a great buying opportunity. I was conservative in my expectations including looking out to … Read more

A Cascade of Impacts from Rate Hike Expectations Planted Back In 2016

On Friday, February 26th, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported revised GDP results for Q4 2015. The number went from a first estimate of 0.7% to 1.0% annualized. The Bureau of Economic Analysis declared “with this second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; … Read more