ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Introduction When I wrote about the third quarter earnings for M.D.C. Holdings (MDC), I wondered aloud: “MDC’s next report on orders should deliver a very telling challenge to investor sentiment.” MDC seemed to deliver on orders in its Q4 earnings report, up 49% year-over-year and up 13% for the whole year. Investors were initially excited … Read more
AT40 = 38.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week, I switched from neutral for the first time in, I believe, months. I downgraded to “cautiously bearish” because … Read more
A week ago, I laid out a game plan for playing Tesla (TSLA) earnings on January 29th based on a belief that the market was under-pricing TSLA call options. At the time, TSLA’s stock price sat at $510.50, and options priced in a +/- 10% gain for TSLA on January 31st. The week opened (on … Read more
Tesla (TSLA) has been on a tear. Analyst Expectations Analysts have stumbled over themselves to hike price targets: Canaccord Genuity from $375 to $515, Piper Sandler from $423 to $553, Oppenheimer from $385 to $612, and Jeffries from $400 to $600. At least three analysts have staunchly defended their bearishness: Credit Suisse reluctantly hiked its … Read more
Meritage Homes (MTH) reported earnings two days before October 25th when iShares US Home Construction (ITB) first challenged its climactic January, 2018 high. At the time, MTH was in the middle of an impressive post-earnings rebound. At its intraday, post-earnings low, MTH perfectly tested support at its 50-day moving average (DMA). However, the moment of truth … Read more