ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) reported third quarter earnings on the evening of November 5th at the tail-end of a particularly challenging time for the stock. Going into earnings, CCS was down 35% from its 52-week and all-time closing high set in early September. CCS is still up 7.5% for the year, but the recent earnings … Read more
The pre-earnings trade on Apple (AAPL) unfolded exactly opposite of expectations. The model pointed bearishly, but AAPL ended the day with a very impressive 4.2% pop that placed it right back where it closed on Friday’s impressive rally. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This particular pre-earnings trade turned out to have too many moving parts and caveats. I … Read more
It was fun while it lasted. The trades I described in coal in the wake of news of investments by George Soros seem to be coming to a decisive end. The recent bottoms have not yet given way but seems sure to do so in the coming days or weeks. Arch Coal (ACI) has swung … Read more
Last week, I updated the data on the Apple (AAPL) pre-earnings trade in a piece called “The Apple Pre-Earnings Trade: October, 2015 Edition – An Important Juncture.” I concluded that the main trade for AAPL going into earnings October 27, 2015 is to fade the 7-day average daily price change. Not including today (the 27th), … Read more
At the timing of writing, Apple (AAPL) is up 0.6% for the year, essentially flat. When I last wrote about the Apple pre-earnings trade back in January, I looked back at the December 1, 2014 “flash dip” in AAPL’s stock as a lingering harbinger of more selling to come. As it turned out, AAPL sold … Read more
When Meritage Homes (MTH) lowered guidance on September 9, 2015, the nation’s seventh largest homebuilder blamed several factors: A delay in closing homes. This was the most concerning explanation because the company provided no further details on it. Increased labor costs. These costs impacted margins. The problem was particularly acute in MTH’s major markets of … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 19, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} An analyst asked this timely question during the November 11, 2014 earnings call for LGI Homes (LGIH). The quote comes from the Seeking Alpha transcript of that earnings call. Charles … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) After regional homebuilder LGI Homes (LGIH) produced stellar earnings results earlier this month, I had high hopes for Century Communities (CCS) as well. CCS’s results for its second quarter were good, … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 6, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) In previous pieces covering homebuilders and housing, I have noted that my favorite plays in the space remain the regional builders. Regionals tend to have lower valuations with execution and growth … Read more
It turned out that technicals were indeed all I needed to follow for trading Memorial Production Partners (MEMP). As I described in an earlier piece, I successfully navigated a trade in MEMP by closing out my position and locking out profits after a break of support at the 50-day moving average (DMA). It was purely … Read more