ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Last week, I mentioned that I had not yet decided on my re-entry strategy for gold and silver. I remain in neutral as gold, silver, and the dollar index churn in various holding patterns (using GLD and SLV as proxies for gold and silver respectively). GLD is right where it was two months ago. SLV … Read more
The week ended with the S&P 500, SLV (a silver ETF), and GLD (a gold ETF) all approaching former 52-week highs. The U.S. dollar dropped 1.3% on Friday, decisively failing at resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA) and putting an exclamation point on the week’s action. The S&P 500 broke through its last battle … Read more
After 46 days, the stock market finally dropped out of overbought conditions. On Friday, T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), plunged below the 70% overbought threshold all the way to 62.5%. The stock market had a historic run. These past 46 trading days created the sixth longest overbought … Read more
A surprise increase in margin requirements after the close of business November 10th apparently contributed to the climactic end to silver’s parabolic move on Tuesday. This also explains why gold’s fade was not nearly as bad a silver’s. Details are available in the following references in order of publication: CNBC (Tues): “CME Taps the Brakes … Read more
I was about a month premature and about 19% in missed gains when I flagged the potential start of a parabolic move in silver. Or perhaps my definition of a parabolic move should have been more expansive. Either way, silver’s behavior over the past four trading days definitely has taken on the tipsy look of … Read more
Time for a little fun with gold. As a child of the 1980s, I took particular interest in a fun October 13, 2010, Bloomberg interview with A-Team star Mr. T., the celebrity pitchman for Gold Promise. Gold Promise is a service run by Cash America International, Inc. (CSH) that allows people to sell their gold … Read more
Now that the bearish/selling signal for gold (and silver) seems ready to pass without incident, I thought I would take another look at a sentiment analysis on gold. Since little has changed in the three months since I concluded that skepticism towards gold remained high, I am taking a slightly different spin this time around. … Read more
Oh to have the resources of China. The Financial Times reports in “China sits on up to $1.5bn in copper profits” that China has cleaned up in betting against the deflationary fears that gripped much of the planet in 2008-2009: “Beijing’s bet that a ‘super-cycle’ in metals markets would keep copper prices high, despite the … Read more
Talk of currency wars have heated up as several events have converged to make the public increasingly aware of the on-going competitive devaluations around the globe. The increasing clamor came ahead of an IMF meeting Thursday and a G7 meeting this weekend where the topic of global trade and currency rates are hot topics. It … Read more
While most of the Western industrial world struggles with deflationary fears, Australia continues to worry about inflation. In tonight’s latest release on monetary policy, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens states: “If economic conditions evolve as the Board currently expects, it is likely that higher interest rates will be required, at some point, … Read more