ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
Stock Market Commentary: The Feds delivered on Sunday as Janet Yellen promised. The FDIC, the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve joined forces to offer emergency financial backing and reassurances for the banking system, a kind of “Project Calm” to project calm. The Federal Reserve even came up with a new acronym that looks like a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Unlike the prior week, last week was all about the fundamentals, and the fundamentals made a huge difference. After failing to break through picture-perfect resistance levels, especially the 20-day moving averages (DMAs) (the dotted lines in the charts below), the indices were left vulnerable to selling pressure. The pressure started with Federal … Read more
My idea for a trade on the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) report seemed like a great idea last month. Up to that point, the market experienced sharp swings based on the directional gap between the actual inflation readings and expected inflation. I used the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s “nowcasting” to generate an approximate trading model. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: What was resistance for over two months is slowly becoming support for the stock market. The bullish trading action of the last week created an important breakout that confirmed the bottoming action from the previous week’s bullish engulfing pattern. While the stock market may continue to chase its tail before fighting its … Read more
Redfin Corporation (RDFN) joined a slowly growing list of companies announcing layoffs. In a heartfelt blog post, CEO Glenn Kelman explained “I’m sorry we can’t keep our commitment to you. With May demand 17% below expectations, we don’t have enough work for our agents and support staff, and fewer sales leaves us with less money … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: With the prospects of a bottom for this bear market, I am getting a little more interested in individual stock narratives. The bear market rubble is extensive. The gems are dispersed across a wide area. These stock charts provide one framework for sifting through the trash and the opportunity. {note: in this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary After 8 weeks of downward selling pressure, it is hard to pivot thinking on the stock market. Yet, the technical situation requires just such a switch. While the first oversold dip of May was unconvincing, I did flip (cautiously) bullish after the stock market closed oversold for the first time in 519 … Read more
Two recent studies from the Federal Reserve say a lot about its core concerns for inflation. These studies were released back-to-back just one week following Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirming the new religion at the Fed for (aggressively) fighting inflation. Researchers at the St. Louis Federal Reserve identified housing services (aka rents) as a core … Read more
In “Jim Bianco: “Arguably One of the Worst Forecasts In Fed History’” I wrote about the prospects of trading soaring interest rates with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). I have recently and belatedly faded rallies in TLT by buying puts and taking small profits on the way back down. (TLT goes up when … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Throw out all the gradual scenarios for a potential climax. The stock market carved out a quick crest that puts the current rally at risk. Out-performance from small-cap stocks and late saves for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ barely averted a technical setup for a bearish reversal. The stock market goes … Read more