ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
In early 2014 I laid out a basic trading premise for the cocoa market: trade the range by buying sell-offs and selling into buying sprees. This strategy has worked extremely well since then except I only pulled the trigger once this year. The chart below for the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) shows how … Read more
Three months ago, I reviewed earnings guidance from Meritage Homes (MTH) for second quarter 2016. The guidance and subsequent positive market reaction came within weeks of a first quarter earnings report that was very poorly received (13% loss on the day). I called the guidance “too late” because of the sour taste left by the … Read more
Back in October, 2009 When Brazil won the 2016 Summer Olympics, I heralded the news as an opportunity to invest in a country that promised to grow faster than the United States. The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ) never quite matched its peak from 2008 but managed to ride the wave of a post-recession, commodity … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its quarterly report on U.S. home prices for Q2 2016. Home prices rose 5.6% but each month in the quarter increased “only” 0.2% sequentially. This monthly pace represents a substantial slowdown from the first quarter where monthly gains were 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.8%. The FHFA speculates that … Read more