ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
No new news in the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its overnight rate target at 0.25% and to start increasing this rate at the end of next quarter. The Bank of Canada continues to lament the stubborn strength of its currency despite these rock-bottom rates: “…the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the … Read more
In the past two years or so, I have often marveled at how differently the U.S. markets react from Asian and European markets when it comes to “bad” news released overnight (Eastern time). I do not yet have formal data or analysis, but I wanted to share some informal, personal observations. During the market recovery … Read more
The inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and the stock market has snapped back into play with a vengeance since the 15-month closing highs for the S&P 500 set on January 19th. On that day, the dollar index rose for a second day, forming what was to become the bottom of a small pullback in … Read more
The U.S. dollar index is only trading back to levels from last summer. However, from a technical standpoint, the dollar has broken out: the short-term downtrend has ended, and the current move has considerable upside potential. *Chart created using TeleChart: The chart above shows that the dollar’s break below the 200DMA in May led to … Read more
I did not think I would consider (this soon) whether the dollar’s short-term downtrend is ending. I thought this month’s unemployment report put an end to the dollar’s relief rally, but the dollar has surged in the past 3 days to recover all its losses since the most recent peak in mid-December. Even the Australian … Read more
The dollar’s recent relief rally stalled out December 23 (see chart below), and December’s disappointing jobs report may have officially ended it. The apparent working thesis supporting the dollar’s relief rally has been an expectation that an imminent recovery in the labor market would motivate the Fed to raise interest rates sometime soon. December’s disappointing … Read more
As the U.S. dollar index has steadily advanced this month, the relative strength of the Canadian dollar has perplexed me. The Canadian dollar has long seemed overplayed to me as a commodity-positive play given the country’s heavy dependence on the health of the U.S. economy – which I continue to assume will perform weakly in … Read more
By now, everyone has noticed that the inverse relationship between the stock market and the U.S. dollar has broken. For December, the U.S. dollar index is up a healthy 4.7% while the S&P 500 is up 2.1%. I created two charts to demonstrate the dramatic nature of the change relative to trading before December. The … Read more
“Tricks are for kids he plays much gigs He’s a big bad wolf and you’re the three pigs He’s a big bad wolf in your neighborhood Not bad meaning bad but bad meaning good“ “Peter Piper” – Run D.M.C., 1986 from the album “Raising Hell” What was once bad is now good. Or maybe what … Read more
The Wall Street Journal printed a trifecta of articles to day that seem to cry out for the dollar to lift its head out of the sludge. Coincidentally (or not), the dollar rallied for its biggest one-day gain in almost three weeks. In “Uncertainty May Help Dollar“, analysts remind us that the economic recovery remains … Read more