ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMA), hit 21% on Wednesday. This milestone finishes nine days of technically oversold trading conditions as defined by T2108 dropping to 20% or below. I am reposting below a chart of the historical distribution of durations for oversold periods as a reminder that the … Read more
Sellers stepped out of the way today. Although volume was generally low on the major indices, stocks managed large gains that made up for yesterday’s ugly close and much more. In fact, today was the kind of day I was anticipating for yesterday’s trading. Stocks in my listing of potential buy candidates for this oversold … Read more
The stock market is now on day #6 of this oversold period and a powerful resolution to the upside is beginning to look less likely. Asia and Europe led off with powerful rallies. However, the U.S. follow-through stalled out and fell short. Although the indices faded hard and ended notably down, the percentage of stocks … Read more
After a disappointing Monday, bulls got a good scare on Tuesday’s open as the S&P 500 marginally cracked the February lows. However, buyers stepped up in force and bid the index higher for the rest of the day. Buyers have now stepped up in force for the last two up days. With this oversold period … Read more
For 14 months the S&P 500 has trended upward from the March lows. However, with the S&P 500 now down 3.9% for the year, the last 8 of these 14 months have produced no net gain in the index. Another 3% drop will produce the first lower low on the index since July, 2009. The … Read more
The percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages, T2108, closed at 19%, below the 20% threshold that indicates an oversold stock market. The stock market has reached these levels only one other time since the March, 2009 lows – this was in February when the market last cared about the sovereign debt … Read more
It has been such a long time since I have seen the Fast Money crew on CNBC so uniformly fearful and wary about the stock market that I had to scribble a quick post on it as a bookmark for future review. The show’s sentiment is very consistent with the confluence and convergence of technical … Read more
“…I stick by the rule that low-volume buying begets high-volume selling; weeks of gains can be erased within a manner of days once sellers finally get motivated.” This quote came from my commentary in late March titled “Some Lazy Thoughts for a Complacent Market“. At the time, I was reacting to the extreme overbought technical … Read more
I posted a note before noon on Thursday outlining the latest technicals that seemed to point toward a lower stock market. Almost as soon as I sent it, I wished I had waited…mainly because T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving averages, started declining at an even faster rate. By the close … Read more
Earnings excitement is one casualty of the current selling in the market. Several big cap stocks and multinational companies generated a lot of hype and attention from their earnings results this quarter. A number of those gains have been erased and then some. Four stocks have attracted my particular interest: Apple (APPL) – A market … Read more