ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
NOW things get even more interesting for the U.S. dollar. In dramatic fashion, a tremendous surge in buying in the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen shortly after the close of the U.S. market on Wednesday set the dollar hurtling through its long-term support line. This break was long in the making and something I … Read more
I have seen and heard several headlines pronouncing that the market is overbought, extremely overbought even. Yet, my favorite oversold/overbought indicator, T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), has calmly churned around 60% for almost the entire month of December. The market is typically considered overbought after T2108 crosses … Read more
In “The Dollar Is Headed Lower“, Randall W. Forsyth wrote in Barron’s that “The dollar’s trend now is unequivocally lower. And that’s apparent whether you look at fundamental factors or the technical picture on the charts.” He does a good job of summarizing the current condition of de facto competitive devaluation that is increasing the … Read more
The Swiss franc is back to all-time highs against the euro, and the extrapolations have begun. This morning, Bloomberg reports that UBS expects the franc to remain strong for the entire decade: “The Swiss franc will stay strong and investors should hold it as a proxy for the old German deutsche mark as the currency … Read more
The Swiss franc almost got lost in the wake of the U.S. dollar’s tremendously sharp relief rally from support. In the last week, the franc has reasserted its dominance after experiencing an entire month of rare weakness. The daily chart of the euro vs. the franc (EUR/CHF) below demonstrates the sharp reversal that punctuates the … Read more
The strength in the Swiss Franc has accelerated. Even as the euro has stabilized somewhat against the U.S. dollar the past two weeks, the franc continues to set new record highs against the euro. The monthly chart of the euro vs the franc (EUR/CHF) shows how rapidly the franc has gained steam just in the … Read more
For four days, the Swiss franc held all-time highs against the euro (all-time lows of 1.40 for EUR/CHF). As the euro continued to decline against the U.S. dollar, I positioned (twice) in anticipation of a violent break of this support level. As the apparent support continued to hold, it increasingly appeared that the Swiss National … Read more
Currencies swung wildly and dramatically yesterday. Lost in the breathless descriptions of the continued surge in the US dollar and the sudden strength in the Japanese yen is that the drama really began with renewed strength in the Swiss franc. At around 5am Eastern, the franc suddenly surged against all currencies. In particular, it traded … Read more
On April 1, 2010, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) apparently intervened to arrest the appreciation of its currency against the euro, and I wondered whether this action would be as futile as all the other interventions this year. So far, so good for the SNB, as the previously persistent buyers of Swiss francs have all … Read more
Looks like the Swiss National Bank (SNB) tried to have the last laugh on this April Fool’s Day with another attempt to arrest the appreciation in its currency. This intervention was impressive with a 240 pip pop (2.3% move overall), but it only brought the currency back to last week’s trading levels. Source: dailyfx.com charts … Read more