The Brexit Hedge Fails Its First Test

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 1, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) After London’s former mayor Boris Johnson first announced his support for Great Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), aka “Brexit,” the British pound (FXB) sold off for the rest of … Read more

Forex Critical: Trader Confidence Continues to Grow

In the previous week, forex traders extended existing positioning trends. This consistency reveals an on-going confidence in the given trends. Where these changes are consistent with currency moves, traders seem indeed justified in the confidence. However, there are some cases where these positions are starting to run counter to potential shifts in currencies. I expect … Read more

The Japanese Yen Flashes Red for 2016

Trading is off to a rough start in the new year. China kicked off the fireworks for 2016 with a trading halt. From Bloomberg: “The worst-ever start to a year for Chinese shares triggered a trading halt in more than $7 trillion of equities, futures and options, putting the nation’s new market circuit breakers to … Read more

A Case for News Sensitivity and Unreliable Liquidity As Early Warning Signs from Markets

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Central bankers continue to warn financial markets to properly price in risk. On March 13th, Chris Salmon, the Executive Director of Markets at the Bank of England (BoE) continued the … Read more

T2108 Update (January 22, 2015) – Return of the Stock Market’s Soothing Salve

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 15, 2015) – Like So Much Paper Flailing in the Ill Winds

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Swiss National Bank Capitulates On the Swiss Franc

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 15, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Swiss national Bank (SNB) curtly reminded me that paper currencies are just the playthings of central banks. Just over a week after I had start enjoying more actively shorting the … Read more

Short the Franc Even As Negative Rates Are Proving Insufficient to End Strength Versus the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 5, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Don’t look now, but the Swiss franc (FXF) is seemingly back for another test of the 1.20 currency floor against the euro (FXE). When the market forced the hand of the … Read more

Currency Markets Once Again Force the Hand of the Swiss National Bank

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 18, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reacted swiftly. It could have just been a “fat finger” trade an hour before U.S. trading began. In an instant, the euro (FXE) vs Swiss Franc … Read more

Swiss National Bank: “The Economic Outlook Has Deteriorated Considerably”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 18, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) With the Swiss franc (FXF) trading closer and closer to its 1.20 floor versus the euro (FXE), I find myself more interested than usual in the monetary policy decisions of the … Read more