The Draghi Drubbing Redux

Mario Draghi ALMOST got the language of infinite liquidity right this time around… The euro (FXE) approached the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March 10th press conference on monetary policy with high expectations. Even after getting burned in December’s Draghi Drubbing, the currency market “felt” prepared to accept that ECB President Draghi had learned the lessons … Read more

T2108 Update (February 19, 2016) – Buyers Hang On to Bounce from Oversold Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Weak Relationship Between Bear Markets and Recessions

The February 4, 2016 edition of Nightly Business Report included a segment assessing the ability of the stock market to predict recessions. This is of course a timely piece given the stock market’s current plunge and growing recession fears arising from analyst commentary and softening economic data. Steve Liesman, chief economist for CNBC, took a … Read more

T2108 Update (February 3, 2016) – The Waterfall and the Whale: An Oversold Near Miss

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The S&P 500’s Latest Breakdown Echoes the Warning Signal From the August Angst

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 19, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) For a brief moment on January 15, 2016, the S&P 500 (SPY) looked ready to extend the sell-off that ended with the August Angst of 2015. At 1858, the index was … Read more