ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The S&P 500 printed fresh 2-year highs last week with decent volume. This marks a successful follow-through to the breakout from November’s trading channel. Given the index is now tagging the upper-Bollinger Band, it is even more likely that this move will be sustained, at least in the short-term. The longer-term chart suggests that the … Read more
The week ended with the S&P 500, SLV (a silver ETF), and GLD (a gold ETF) all approaching former 52-week highs. The U.S. dollar dropped 1.3% on Friday, decisively failing at resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA) and putting an exclamation point on the week’s action. The S&P 500 broke through its last battle … Read more
I did not think the bulls could pull off an Act 2 defending the 50-day moving average (DMA) support on the S&P 500, but defend they did. Presumably, the stock market left behind fears of a Korean conflagration and an implosion of European sovereign debt in favor of encouraging economic news, like unemployment claims dropping … Read more
After the stock market finally tumbled from overbought conditions, I concluded that “…hope remains for bullish wishes, but all the warning signs are tilting comfort levels to the bears.” Bears are now making themselves feel right at home. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 lost 1.6% on higher than average volume, creating the kind of strong … Read more
After 46 days, the stock market finally dropped out of overbought conditions. On Friday, T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), plunged below the 70% overbought threshold all the way to 62.5%. The stock market had a historic run. These past 46 trading days created the sixth longest overbought … Read more
Like my friend TraderMike, I am extremely surprised at the timing of the market’s latest breakout. I too would have thought a breakout would come immediately after one of our three main news items of the week, not in between! I agree with TraderMike that the nature of this breakout leaves open the real possibility … Read more
The market has essentially maintained a holding pattern while awaiting the results of next week’s trifecta of news: the elections, the Federal Reserve’s announcement on quantitative easing, and the next employment report. So I was quite surprised to realize that for almost three weeks my favorite technical indicator, T2108, has been dropping. On Thursday, this … Read more
Over the last few months of tracking the S&P 500 I have not given much thought to the “reverse head and shoulders” (H&S) pattern. It is now time to pay attention. Friday’s continuation of the current rally is not just part of a steady uptrend from the August lows that has successfully punctured through important … Read more
Trader Mike asked on Tuesday whether the stock market is free at last of its trading range. He questioned whether the steep ascent can last in the midst of over-bought technical conditions. The financials are not confirming the advance (and likely weighing on the S&P 500 as it has underperformed relative to the NASDAQ). This … Read more
I tried to make the case on Monday that the shrill commentary about the struggling American economy and its tepid stock market were getting overwrought with the kind of fever only a contrarian could love. It turns out there were other sentiment indicators flashing important extremes: “Bullish Sentiment Plummets to Credit Crisis Low“ (CNBC, August … Read more