ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
After 46 days, the stock market finally dropped out of overbought conditions. On Friday, T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), plunged below the 70% overbought threshold all the way to 62.5%. The stock market had a historic run. These past 46 trading days created the sixth longest overbought … Read more
Like my friend TraderMike, I am extremely surprised at the timing of the market’s latest breakout. I too would have thought a breakout would come immediately after one of our three main news items of the week, not in between! I agree with TraderMike that the nature of this breakout leaves open the real possibility … Read more
The market has essentially maintained a holding pattern while awaiting the results of next week’s trifecta of news: the elections, the Federal Reserve’s announcement on quantitative easing, and the next employment report. So I was quite surprised to realize that for almost three weeks my favorite technical indicator, T2108, has been dropping. On Thursday, this … Read more
Over the last few months of tracking the S&P 500 I have not given much thought to the “reverse head and shoulders” (H&S) pattern. It is now time to pay attention. Friday’s continuation of the current rally is not just part of a steady uptrend from the August lows that has successfully punctured through important … Read more
Trader Mike asked on Tuesday whether the stock market is free at last of its trading range. He questioned whether the steep ascent can last in the midst of over-bought technical conditions. The financials are not confirming the advance (and likely weighing on the S&P 500 as it has underperformed relative to the NASDAQ). This … Read more
I tried to make the case on Monday that the shrill commentary about the struggling American economy and its tepid stock market were getting overwrought with the kind of fever only a contrarian could love. It turns out there were other sentiment indicators flashing important extremes: “Bullish Sentiment Plummets to Credit Crisis Low“ (CNBC, August … Read more
It seems the market is adjusting to the high potential on Friday morning for a significant revision to second quarter U.S. GDP. The consensus forecast appears to be a revision from 2.4% to 1.4% with a “whisper” number as low as 1.0% “anecdotally” based on watching and reading various bearish pundits. Since failing to break … Read more
After tumbling hard last week out of severely overbought conditions (T2108 is now at a comfortably neutral 55%), the S&P 500’s slide has slowed against what looks like a sludge of apathy. Volume has quickly dried up since last Wednesday’s 2.8% loss and now stochastics suggest the S&P 500 is oversold. I suspect the stock … Read more
Momentum continues to swing swiftly in favor of the bulls. The stock market is now pushing deep into overbought territory just three weeks after it was fashionable again to talk about a double dip recession. Last week, the S&P 500 broke a downtrend I assumed would hold for at least a few more weeks. It … Read more
With tongue reaching for the cheek last week, I declared the market both extremely undervalued and very overvalued, guessing that “as earnings season grinds on, I suspect the near-predictable pattern of post-earnings fades will finally wear thin, giving way to more bullish behavior.” I did not expect the turn to happen so clearly and dramatically … Read more