ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Sometimes it pays to be stubborn. In December, I asked whether Beyond Meat (BYND) would be the speculative trade of the new year. I presented a simple thesis that managed to work out. However, the path from A to B was totally unexpected, and I broke rules along the way. In response to earnings, BYND … Read more
Bitcoin Boring Bitcoin (BTC/USD) was pretty boring until this past weekend. After neatly failing at resistance from its 200-day moving average (DMA) in late March, BTC/USD settled back into what was starting to look like an extended trading range. However, the pressures of the bear market and a soaring U.S. dollar (DXY) proved too much … Read more
Some sporting goods retailers have to survive the coronavirus pandemic. Hibbett Sports (HIBB) looks like one of them. Soaring Sales Results Hibbett Sports provided early sales guidance for its fiscal second quarter that delivered surprisingly strong results (all comparables are year-over-year unless otherwise stated): Total store sales for the quarter: over +70%; for the first … Read more
Look no further than LGI Homes (LGIH) as a confirmation that at least some parts of the country are back to business after a temporary pause from COVID-19 (coronavirus) economic woes. Last week, LGI Homes reported more astounding sales results. From the press release: June home closings: +16.7% year-over-year Q2 home closings: +3.1% year-over-year, the … Read more
When I wrote about the buying opportunity in the wake of an over-reaction to headlines on Peloton Interactive (PTON), I did not consider a scenario where a fresh catalyst quickly appeared to apply renewed downside pressure. Analysts are one of the big hazards of swing trading. The Short Citron Research is a famous short-selling shop. … Read more
The wait continues for Soliton (SOLY) to turn promise into profits through the science and business of tattoo removal. Shareholder Letter Soliton recently released its first shareholder letter as a publicly traded company. The report discussed a lot of exciting progress on core technologies and product development, but the letter left shareholders little closer to … Read more
Toys R Us refuses to die. The hedge funds that own the debt of the bankrupt toy retailer decided to cancel an auction of assets and instead plan to revive the brand and even open new retail outlets. The prospects of another Toys R Us revival could become symbolic: the timing coincided with what looks … Read more
I first wrote about Ulta Beauty (ULTA) in early September, 2016 after it confirmed a bearish breakdown from support at its 50-day moving average (DMA). I never traded the stock and missed the entire recovery and 31% gain to the last peak and all-time high in early June, 2017. It took another bearish breakdown for … Read more
AT40 = 38.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.3 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) is suddenly struggling at its 50-day moving average (DMA). The big reflex bounce from Tuesday, August 22nd has … Read more
Last week, I thought a quick burst of morning buying in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) was a potentially bullish sign for the hapless CMG. I anticipated buyers might finally be ready to stave off the relentless selling pressure. I even bought a call option and shares as a part of my speculation. So far, the … Read more