ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
A little over two weeks ago I generated some simple trading scenarios for the United States Oil Fund LP (USO). The scenarios depended upon well-behaved volatility for oil, the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX). OVX is now on the edge of breaking out above its 50-day moving average (DMA). The move was led … Read more
The United States Oil ETF (USO) is down 1.0% in 2015. At its lowest point in 2015, USO was down 23.3%. At its highest point, USO was up 2.6%. This asymmetry alone seems to suggest that USO should tend higher in the short-term. I make this assumption based on an on-going decline in volatility, measured … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 1, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) meets this week on June 5th in a much different price environment for oil than the November, 2014 meeting. {snip} Sources: US. Energy … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On March 5, 2015, Barron’s Blogs published a short article on a large bet against volatility on United States Oil ETF (USO) called “Big Options Bet Sees Oil ETF Rangebound into … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} The most striking feature of the minutes for the mid-March meeting was the Federal Reserve’s very mixed feelings toward the timing for the first rate hike: {snip} There are multiple … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 19, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {April 8, 2015 addendum: negative feedback loop is not the accurate term. I should have left it at feedback loops or even destructive feedback loops} {snip} {snip} There is every reason … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more