ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
I easily forget that just a year ago the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) was struggling at its all-time lows as the price of cocoa suffered through a steep bear market. One month ago, NIB hit a 19-month high after surging off the December test of the all-time lows. Taken together, a pullback to … Read more
It did not take long. Two days after I identified a Bollinger Band squeeze on iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB), the technical chart pattern resolved to the downside. NIB has lost 11.9% over this time. Source: FreeStockCharts.com At current levels, NIB has confirmed a top from its 19-month high: a breakdown below the 50-day … Read more
AT40 = 65.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.7 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Here we are again. The stock market looks like it is breaking free, but there are major caveats which keep me wary … Read more
In commodities, the time to get bullish is usually when prices are pressuring the industry and sentiment is persistently and deeply negative. The time to get bearish is usually when prices are skyrocketing, industry participants are celebrating wondrous fortunes, and sentiment is as euphoric as can be. Since I am long-term bullish on cocoa, I … Read more
On March 8th, I finally took profits and sold the rest of my holdings in iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB). In the past week, NIB came back down to my price and the ETN closed below my selling price to finish the week. I now think the price of cocoa, and thus NIB, has … Read more