Eyeing the Stock Market Disconnect As Optimism Keeps Blocking Bears

Nice Save Bears have taken numerous shots yet the bulls have consistently blocked them all. The S&P 500 (SPY) is barely off its all-time highs and has survived all number of setbacks. These setbacks seem to get more and more shallow. Monday, April 3rd, 2017 delivered another classic example. The morning began with very convincing … Read more

Above the 40 (March 20, 2017) – Stock Market Returns to Regularly Scheduled Programming

AT40 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 61.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.3 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40, I pointed out a surprising and mild bullish divergence. Like so much else in … Read more

Toppy Tesla

In early January, Tesla Motors (TSLA) confirmed its breakout from resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA). At that point, I got bullish on the stock from a swing trading perspective. That bullishness came to a screeching halt today. On September 4, 2014, Tesla Motors (TSLA) reached an all-time closing high of $286.04/share. The stock … Read more

A Stock Market Positioned to Win A Battle of Sentiments: Taxation Versus Economic Optimism

On August 20, 2015, I wrote “A Broad and Bearish Breakdown for the Stock Market” that described a converging set of indicators which flagged short-term bearish conditions in the stock market. The post happened to precede the August, 2015 flash crash by two trading days. It was one of those moments when the technicals worked … Read more

A Potentially Ominous Sentiment Shift for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest data on speculator forex positioning showed a sudden and abrupt change in sentiment on the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip} If this sharp drop in net longs turns into net … Read more