ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Ahead of the second and final round of the French Presidential election, I noted a burst of euro-optimism. That optimism continued in the form of speculators turning net bullish on the euro for the first time in three years. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders While this flip from bearish to bullish for the first … Read more
AT40 = 49.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.6 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The week started with the volatility index, the VIX, plunging to a 14-year low. I held onto my put options … Read more
AT40 = 58.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The last week of trading for April transitioned readily from the French Fly that sent financial markets into celebratory dances … Read more
AT40 = 61.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 63.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Going into the first round of the French Presidential election, I figured the best case scenario was the absence of … Read more
On April 17, 2017 volatility expert Steven Sears wrote an article in Barron’s called “Profiting From the Stock Market’s Latest Fears.” In this piece, Sears recommends that long-term investors take advantage of rising market anxieties by selling put options. The most nervous investors can cope by “…stockpiling cash and buying some bullish call options to … Read more
Nice Save Bears have taken numerous shots yet the bulls have consistently blocked them all. The S&P 500 (SPY) is barely off its all-time highs and has survived all number of setbacks. These setbacks seem to get more and more shallow. Monday, April 3rd, 2017 delivered another classic example. The morning began with very convincing … Read more
AT40 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 61.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.3 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40, I pointed out a surprising and mild bullish divergence. Like so much else in … Read more
In early January, Tesla Motors (TSLA) confirmed its breakout from resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA). At that point, I got bullish on the stock from a swing trading perspective. That bullishness came to a screeching halt today. On September 4, 2014, Tesla Motors (TSLA) reached an all-time closing high of $286.04/share. The stock … Read more
On August 20, 2015, I wrote “A Broad and Bearish Breakdown for the Stock Market” that described a converging set of indicators which flagged short-term bearish conditions in the stock market. The post happened to precede the August, 2015 flash crash by two trading days. It was one of those moments when the technicals worked … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest data on speculator forex positioning showed a sudden and abrupt change in sentiment on the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip} If this sharp drop in net longs turns into net … Read more