ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The iPath Bloomberg Coffee SubTR ETN (JO) hit the fresh all-time low that I did not think would happen. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The proximate news was a report of surplus from the CoffeeNetwork as reported by Reuters (I could not find mention of this forecast on the group’s twitter or Facebook feeds). According to Reuters: “The … Read more
According to Hanna Neuschwander, the Communications Director for the World Coffee Research, demand for coffee will double, while over that same timeframe climate change will cut in half the land area available for growing coffee. A little over a month ago, I launched a trade in iPath Bloomberg Coffee SubTR ETN (JO) as a play … Read more
AT40 = 71.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – overbought day #2 AT200 = 58.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.5 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary It looks like an overbought rally is truly underway. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks closing above their … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The crash in commodities continues nearly unabated against a wide swath of commodities. The selling has become so extreme that I have started moving from following the trends downward to watching … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 23, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodity stocks have generally underperformed the stock market in 2012. I still cannot decide whether this weakness represents a leading indicator of broader weakness to come or a fortuitous relief to … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This piece is a follow-up post to “Preparing for Profits in a Resource-Constrained World” (Part 1) in which I discussed the implications of Jeremy Grantham’s fundamental thesis of a new world where resources are … Read more
Coffee prices have soared along with most other commodities over the past year and more. For example, the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Total Return Sub-Index ETN (aka JO) is up 70% since the end of 2009. The last earnings results from Starbucks (SBUX) demonstrated the stress from these higher coffee prices. The company slightly lowered … Read more