ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary A divergence in the housing market is emerging between slowing home builder stocks and strong housing data. The housing boom in the U.S. continued to make its mark in the middle of the pandemic-induced recession. While new home sales took a bit of a pause in October, housing starts, existing … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 26.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (8-month high) VIX = 38.0 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary A little over a week ago, the stock market looked poised to launch higher … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (8-month high) VIX = 32.5 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The stock market looked like it was warming up from a period of cooling … Read more
This week’s housing data were impressive. The Housing Market Index (HMI) for October reported another all-time for home builder sentiment. Subsequently, starts for single-family homes hit a fresh 13-year high. Yet, the stock market yawned. Housing-related stocks demonstrated rare signs of weakness not seen in a long time. Several stocks suffered breakdowns below their respective … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 41.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ranged from 25.8% to 42.8%) AT200 = 42.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (ranged from 39.2% to 45.5%) VIX = 27.6 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary Last Friday was the kind of … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The pandemic recession ended for housing in July. August demonstrated that an all-out housing boom is underway. I was expecting the housing data to start normalizing. Instead, demand pushed ever higher and supply tightened further. Housing Stocks Toll Brothers (TOL) started last week with a preliminary report on net new … Read more
Chasing bubbles is a dangerous game. Chasing a housing bubble is barely a game. The Case for a Housing Bubble On CNBC’s Fast Money, Tim Seymour led a segment called the “Mother of All Housing Bubbles.” I expected Seymour to make the case for shorting housing-related stocks. As a perma-bull on the housing market, I … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (intraday low of 45.9% which was solid support in second half of July and early August)AT200 = 46.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 30.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary I thought … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The pandemic recession is over as far as the housing market is concerned. The case for V-shaped recoveries was evident in the last Housing Market Review. The recovery completed in August with important new highs in existing and new home sales and in home builder sentiment. Ultra-low interest rates support … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 60.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 7 overbought trading days)AT200 = 42.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 22.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages … Read more