Forex Critical: British Pound and Mexican Peso – A Tale Of Resistance

In recent days I wrote about the British pound (FXB) and the Mexican peso. In both posts, I pointed out to resistance levels versus the U.S. dollar: GBP/USD and USD/MXN. In both cases, those resistance levels held. In the case of the pound, the technicals held against major fundamental news: the Bank of England (BoE) … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Back Down At A Critical Juncture for the British Pound

When speculators finally flipped bullish on the British pound (FXB), it looked like the action came right as the currency was making a peak against the U.S. dollar (DXY0). The timing of my observation happened to mark the bottom for GBP/USD, and now speculators have backed down from their nascent pound bullishness. They now hold … Read more

A Wilting British Pound Reverses Gains from A Hawkish Bank of England

It looks like speculators flipped the script to go net long on the British pound (FXB) just in time to catch a peak. Source: As the chart above shows, GBP/USD just broke down below support at its 50-day moving average (DMA). The move looks like an exclamation point following the full reversal of the … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Flip the Script on the British Pound

Speculators are net bullish on the British pound (FXB) for the first time in almost two years. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders While the net long position is barely above zero, the flip of the script is still significant given how little time speculators have spent bullish on the pound since at least 2008. … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Abandon Shorts on the British Pound

In one fell swoop, the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish posturing flushed shorts out of the British pound (FXB). The net short position of speculators has not been this low ever since the latest wave of currency bearishness began against the British pound. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders This rapid closure of shorts helps … Read more

The British Pound and Carney Are Deja Vu All Over Again

“There’s already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike and this decision is becoming more balanced. It could happen sooner than markets currently expect… …The need for internal balance – to use up wasteful spare capacity while achieving the inflation target – will likely require gradual and limited interest rate increases … Read more

Above the 40 (June 8, 2017) – The Market’s Bullish Push Through Thursday’s Trifecta

AT40 = 52.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary One out of three. The last event of Thursday’s Trifecta had the only notable impact on financial markets. With … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Retreat from the Australian Dollar and Pound, Expand on the Euro and Canadian Dollar

The latest CFTC data on the Commitments of Traders (CoT) shows some important moves in the positioning of speculators. Australian dollar (FXA) While the price of iron ore plunged, bullishness on the Australian dollar (FXA) remained surprisingly strong. I am almost equally surprised to see this bullishness now in full scale retreat as iron ore … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Hold Positions Even As Backdrops Shift

In my last posts on the euro (FXE), the Canadian dollar (FXC), and the British pound (FXB), I noted significant trading moves by speculators in foreign exchange as reported by the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (CoT). The latest CFTC CoT report shows more of the same for these currencies but the backdrops may be shifting … Read more

Forex Critical: Pound Bears Hold Firm Ahead Of Brexit’s Article 50 Trigger

A week ago, the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report revealed that speculators had ramped up net short contracts to highs unseen since at least 2008. These positions were accumulated ahead of announcements on monetary policy from the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Given the British pound soared through these events, I assumed … Read more