T2108 Update (January 15, 2015) – Like So Much Paper Flailing in the Ill Winds

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Commodity Crash Playbook: A Long Overdue Rewrite and Revision

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 5, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Three and a half years ago, I started a series that I called “the Commodities Crash Playbook” in an effort to take advantage of an investing and economic theory promoted by … Read more

Parabolic Moves in the Ruble, Turkish Lira May Foreshadow the Same for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 17, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Currency markets have been rocked with increasingly extreme moves in risk-bearing currencies like the Russian ruble (USD/RUB). Last week, the Russian central bank hiked interest rates from 9.5% to 10.5%. This … Read more

T2108 Update (December 3, 2014) – Sellers Fail to Seal the Deal On Topping Pattern

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

A Minor Intervention Scare for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On November 13th (in the morning in Australia), Christopher Kent, an Assistant Governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), delivered a speech discussing business cycles in Australia. The big news … Read more

Australian Dollar Loses Steam from Surprise China Rate Cut

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 24, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) One thing about a trading range is that it gives both bulls and bears a lot of trading opportunities. The latest disturbance of equilibrium in the Australian dollar (FXA) was the … Read more

Apple Drives Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance Worsens, and Reserve Bank Stays Steady

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 4, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tuesday morning in Australia was a busy time for economic news. First, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the release of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone 6 helped drive electrical and … Read more

T2108 Update (October 1, 2014) – A Long Overdue Close In Oversold Conditions (And How to Trade It)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (September 25, 2014) – Synchronized Sinking

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Forex Setup Week (September 21, 2014) – A Time of Reckoning for the Australian Dollar

This week’s forex setup is simply about the Australian dollar, especially against the U.S. dollar (FXA). At the time of writing, the Australian dollar is testing the next round number on its stair-stepping down: 0.89. The last time AUD/USD hit this level, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) talked up the Australian economy ahead of … Read more