ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
What a difference a month makes. On February 19, the S&P 500 (SPY) was taking a brief rest from a sprint off oversold conditions. The market for Fed Fund Futures had priced away any rate hikes for all of 2016. Ever since then, expectations have risen ever higher. NOW, the market expects the next rate … Read more
I have become accustomed to a relatively predictable reaction to moves in the market’s expectations for rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Last week began in the wake of the market finally bringing its expectations for the next rate hike back into 2016. The cascade of impacts from there were predictable: a stronger U.S. … Read more
On Friday, February 26th, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported revised GDP results for Q4 2015. The number went from a first estimate of 0.7% to 1.0% annualized. The Bureau of Economic Analysis declared “with this second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; … Read more
The U.S. jobs numbers for January, 2016 were good enough to send odds for the next rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve to jump across the scheduled meetings for 2016. Yet, the odds for December as the next month for a rate hike are still well under 50%. Source: CME Group FedWatch Although the … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Wednesday, January 27th, the U.S. Federal Reserve stared down volatile conditions in financial markets and decided to avoid addressing them directly. {snip} When the Bank of Japan (BoJ) came up … Read more