Above the 40 (October 13, 2017) – Stock Market Lift-Off Turns Into Drift

AT40 = 72.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – overbought day #12 AT200 = 60.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.6 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary A week ago I described “lift-off” for an extended overbought period for the stock market. However, the market … Read more

As the VIX Plunges to All-Time Lows, Speculators Abort Their Seasonal Gold and Silver Rush

A month ago, I wrote about the near seasonal pattern of speculators accumulating net long contracts in gold and silver from July troughs to October peaks. THIS year, the speculators started up on schedule but aborted the mission as net longs peaked well ahead of October. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders So seasonal patterns … Read more

A Wilting British Pound Reverses Gains from A Hawkish Bank of England

It looks like speculators flipped the script to go net long on the British pound (FXB) just in time to catch a peak. Source: FreeStockCharts.com As the chart above shows, GBP/USD just broke down below support at its 50-day moving average (DMA). The move looks like an exclamation point following the full reversal of the … Read more

Above the 40 (September 26, 2017) – Stocks Knock On Overbought’s Door

AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (high of 69.4%) AT200 = 57.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I noted how the stock market bent but stubbornly refused to … Read more

Above the 40 (September 8, 2017) – Lingering Tensions for the Stock Market

AT40 = 44.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 (up 4.9%) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The market has made no progress since my last Above the 40 post which covered the volatility and fizzle from … Read more