ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
With the power change in the U.S. House of Representatives, 2023 will be another year of drama over the U.S.’s debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently brought the looming debt drama to the forefront of economic headlines by delivering the obligatory warning about the risk of default if Congress does not increase the debt … Read more
A recent article in Business Insider by Jesse Felder from TheFelderReport.com raised a loud alarm bell over rising margin debt levels in the U.S. stock market (see “A closely followed indicator says a 20% drop in stocks could be coming soon“). The article used the following chart as part of an analysis concluding that a … Read more
“…emerging markets experienced a more recent run-up in indebtedness, which started around the time of the crisis, and is still continuing. In other words, their deleveraging has not even begun. This has the potential to create persistent spending disappointments, if monetary policy is unable to stimulate other spending sufficiently.” – “Debt, Demographics and the Distribution … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com After Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens reminded the market that currency intervention remains in the toolkit for currency devaluation, I half-expected some semantic fireworks in … Read more
Robert Reich recently asked “Which do you trust more: democracy or financial markets?” His article was written in response to Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s proposal to hold a national referendum on whether to accept the conditions of a bailout on their unserviceable government loans. He concludes the piece asking readers whether we should “…rule … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Nouriel Roubini thinks the S&P downgrade could help lock the U.S. into a recession and Christina Romer wants to “swing for the fences” and respond with a massive jobs bill – Bloomberg Video: “Roubini, Rosner, … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Alix Steel, a reporter for thestreet.com, discussed gold on Nightly Business Report, July 26. She claimed that gold’s low volume, summer rally is being fueled by fears of a default on U.S. debt. Nevermind that … Read more
Gretchen Morgenson and Josh Rosner wrote Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed, and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon to describe how the recovery from the financial panic and recession have resolved little and have left the economy at tremendous risk for an even larger crisis. Aaron Task interviews the authors on Yahoo! Finance’s Daily Ticker. … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) It has been a while since I last looked at Deutsche Bank (DB). At that time, I was focused on a pairs trade strategy versus Goldman Sachs (GS). So when I noted last week that GS … Read more
Sheila C. Bair – Will the next fiscal crisis start in Washington? Even as work continues to repair our financial infrastructure and get the economy moving again, we need urgent action to forestall the next financial crisis. I fear that one will start in Washington. Total federal debt has doubled in the past seven years, … Read more