ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 25.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 37.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-year closing low) VIX = 24.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary On Friday, President Trump characterized the pre-Trump stock market as something “from another planet.” Surely he meant the last … Read more
AT40 = 48.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6 (11.5% drop) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The (expected) plunge in the volatility index, the VIX, says it all…the stock market is ready to return to its … Read more
AT40 = 32.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.5 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (downgrade from bullish – see below for more details) Commentary The trading contours in the aftermath of an oversold episode can move … Read more
The volatility index, the VIX, closed below 11 on April 24, 2017. That launched 184 trading days of extremely low volatility (ELV). The VIX is now just 1 more trading day away from finally bringing this historic event to an end. By my definition, it takes 20 trading days of the VIX closing above 11 … Read more
Trying to chase volatility higher has been like chasing fancy footwork. The S&P 500 (SPY) last completed a drawdown of 5% or more on November 4, 2016. That ended a period of pre-election weakness that began in early to mid-August, 2016. The last drawdown of 5% or more before that occurred around Brexit when the … Read more