ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market threw a big fakeout, the biggest I have seen in a long time. Just yesterday, a synchronized failure at key resistance levels from the major indices combined with a drop from overbought conditions to convince me to get (cautiously) bearish on the stock market. The read on July CPI … Read more
In “What Recession? Market Shows Love As Apple Leads the Way“, I raised a yellow flag on a critical test for the market at the overbought threshold. I described the conditions dividing the market from a bearish reversal and an extended bullish rally. The stock market left the situation in suspense by gapping down, falling … Read more
Stock Market Commentary First, a strong jobs report unnerved the stock market. Next, strong inflation unraveled the stock market as bear market trading beat stocks back to oversold’s edge. Perhaps ironically, the White House sounded an early alarm bell about the inflation report and gave market participants a head start in selling. Sellers quickly flipped … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The expected first of the month buying only showed up in the last hour of trading, but it still made an important impression. The recovery created a picture perfect bounce off the oversold threshold. At the same time the S&P 500 perfectly tapped its May, 2021 closing low before recovering. The volatility … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: At mid-week, the stock market looked poised to put on a defiant display of buying power. However, multiple negative headlines proved too much to bear. Hawkish Fed-speak greased the skids on Thursday. Another hot inflation report and escalating tensions at the Ukrainian border sealed the deal for angst to rule the day. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, aka “J-Pow”, finally decided the time has come to drop the descriptor “transitory” from America’s current experience with inflation (see the 37:00 mark in the video below). J-Pow even acknowledged that “it is therefore appropriate…to consider wrapping up the taper of asset purchases…perhaps a few months sooner” … Read more
A quick heads-up to readers. One-Twenty Two (and the entire domain) will be down for the count on Saturday, October 9, 2021 from around 3pm to midnight Eastern Time. My hosting company describes this planned outage as “complex” so I am bracing for an even longer outage. Thank you in advance for your patience. If … Read more
The Follow-Through: Churning While the S&P 500 (SPY) cruised higher all week, much of the rest of the market resigned to churning. The dichotomy of a market rebound versus the wounds left to heal continued to play out. Many of the follow-through trades for this week churned with the rest of the stock market. See … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 79.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #10 overbought) AT200 = 77.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (7 1/2 year high) VIX = 20.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the overbought stock market stretched for a … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 59.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (8-month high) VIX = 27.6 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The stock market cooling continued all of last week. After a sharp one-day pullback … Read more