Oversold Trading Awaits – The Market Breadth

Oversold

Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve helped unlock the stalemate in pricing action that stalled the bearish divergence tugging the market toward oversold trading conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again told financial markets the Fed remains as hawkish as ever. Expectations contracted for rate cuts next year, interest rates soared, and stocks plunged. While … Read more

Tech Stocks Help Press the Limits of A Sentiment Shift – The Market Breadth

press the limits (Credit: Men Pushing Loaded Truck - Phulbagan - Kolkata 20180223161038 by Biswarup Ganguly on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary Jackson Hole did not provide the market moving spark that I expected. Instead, soft economic news delivered the decisive interpretation of future monetary policy required to provide a fresh catalyst for stocks. The bullish spark caught me flat-footed as I was leaning into imminent oversold trading conditions. Fortunately, the sentiment shift was … Read more

Overbought Conditions Slip Into An Apple Topping – The Market Breadth

apple topping (Credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2021-11-26_18_02_07_An_apple_pie_with_one_slice_removed_in_the_Dulles_section_of_Sterling,_Loudoun_County,_Virginia.jpg Famartin https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0 CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Stock Market Commentary A week ago, buyers did their best to push against topping stock indices by restarting overbought conditions. That overbought period lasted just 3 days as a Fitch downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt freshly cooled the summer of loving stocks. The resulting selling confirmed topping conditions and greased the skids of the stock … Read more

How to Change from FOMO to No Regrets in the Stock Market

no regrets (Credit: Relaxing on the Beach by evanforester on Flickr)

(An audio version of this blog post is available on SoundCloud) A no regrets decision is a high quality decision. When backed by a systematic framework, preferably something like the decision chain which I use in my consulting practice, a decisionmaker has reasonably and practically exhausted all available options to improve the inputs to the … Read more

Overbought Trading Ends with Japan’s Monetary Drama Carving Topping Patterns In Stocks – The Market Breadth

topping pattern (Credit: Don't fall off the cliff by blmurch on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve’s latest pronouncement on monetary policy was supposed to provide the drama of the week. However, the stock market yawned and resumed the buying of the summer of love at the open of trading the next day. Enter the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to provide the real drama. The fireworks … Read more

Small Cap Stocks Add Pressure to the Bears – The Market Breadth

pressure (credit: Mr Bear found out the hard way not to mess with this crew! #lego #legotoys #actionfigures #adventuretoys by Seasons K Designs on Flickr)

I earlier claimed that market breadth would only push higher with the participation of small cap stocks. Well the big moment of truth already arrived as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) punched through its bear market line for the third time in 11 months. With the S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ (COMPQ) relentlessly … Read more

Chasing the Outperformance of Home Builders

outperformance (Credit: Dr. Duru at the Charles Shultz Museum)

I assumed the seasonal trade on home builders came to an end some time in May. However, the tailwinds lifting builders higher remain as strong as ever. This strength and outperformance has confused and confounded those assuming higher interest rates would mean disaster for the housing market and an eventual recession. A recent upgrade for … Read more

Bulls Win Big: Overbought Conditions Return – The Market Breadth

bulls win big (Credit: BULLFIGHT, SOMETIMES THE BULL WINS by David Winnie from Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary The bulls win big. The summer of loving stocks continued with the bulls overcoming a major hurdle: the overbought threshold for market breadth. After two failed attempts in the last month, the third attempt became the charm. The charm received a strong endorsement from fresh breakouts by the S&P 500 and the … Read more

A Looming Collision Between Overbought Trading and the Fed – The Market Breadth

collision (Credit: Collision Course by charlieishere@btinternet.com on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: Market breadth almost reached overbought trading territory last week. The Federal Reserve is issuing yet another missive on monetary policy this coming Wednesday. The market’s script is arranged for the potential drama of a collision between the euphoria of overbought trading and a Federal Reserve that is eager to moderate the market … Read more

Running With Picks and Shovels in the Generative AI Race

picks and shovels (Credit: Shovel or Shovel? You Pick by Linda, Fortuna future on Flickr)

NVIDIA Races Ahead Money manager Cathie Wood of ARK Invest is known for being unconventional by making concentrated bets on highly speculative companies, what Wood calls betting on innovation that solves problems. So of course Wood has AI-related bets in the various ARK funds. The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) in particular holds … Read more