A Stock Market Stuck In An Obvious Trading Range Still Produces A Rich Set of Expectations – Above the 40 (August 29, 2019)

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Trigger Finger On Tuesday (August 27), I saw enough hints of a flip from a bullish to bearish divergence … Read more

The Google Trend Momentum Check Points to Next Launchpad for Bitcoin

This weekly view of Google Trends for Bitcoin shows a steady uptrend featuring higher highs and higher lows since Bitcoin broke out in April.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) made a major peak on June 26th. Since then, the cryptocurrency has pivoted around its 50-day moving average (DMA). Three breakdowns of that line of support have been met with buyers which suggests to me that Bitcoin is consolidating a launchpad for imminently higher prices. The Google Trend Momentum Check (GTMC) supports my … Read more

Christmas In August Fails to Prevent A Test of the Month’s Extremes – Above the 40 (August 14, 2019)

The S&P 500 (SPY) printed a marginally new low for the month after a 2.9% loss.

AT40 = 26.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 40.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 22.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary When the S&P 500 (SPY) bounced away from the oversold threshold last week, it left behind an extreme … Read more

Real Estate Pairs Trade Refresh: Long Redfin, Short Zillow Group

The ratio of Redfin (RDFN) vs Zillow Group (Z) (ZG) is bouncing off its well-supported historic lows.

My last pairs trade going long Redfin (RDFN) calls versus long Zillow Group (Z) (ZG) put options did not work out as I over-extended my stay on RDFN. A fresh opportunity for a pairs trade has arrived with RDFN neatly testing key support after reversing most of its post-earnings gains and with Zillow Group in … Read more

A Manic Stock Market Leaves Behind An Extreme August Drawdown – Above the 40 (August 9, 2019)

Much ado about nothing? The 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) shows the gory details of a manic swoon to a near flat close for the week.

AT40 = 37.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week almost where it started. In between the bookends, the market gyrated wildly … Read more