ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: Now I see why there was so little fanfare about the end of the bear market. Last week’s trading looks like a warm-up for a bear market comeback. The S&P 500 and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) printed bearish confirmations of resistance at their respective 200-day moving averages (DMAs) (the blue … Read more
The conditions for bottoming in the ARK funds started to diverge a bit in late June. While the bottoming patterns differed, the ARK bottom synchronized with the general market’s bottom. Those conditions were born from the deeply oversold conditions that arrived in June. At that time, I interpreted the turmoil as the early days of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The bear market ended with a bullish counter, yet I noticed no celebratory or indicative headlines on CNBC. CNBC’s Fast Money included technical discussions but gave no reference to what I consider to be two major technical developments. The NASDAQ closed above its bear market line and joined the S&P 500 and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market threw a big fakeout, the biggest I have seen in a long time. Just yesterday, a synchronized failure at key resistance levels from the major indices combined with a drop from overbought conditions to convince me to get (cautiously) bearish on the stock market. The read on July CPI … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market took one more day to get resolution on the technical signals flashing from market breadth. A drop from overbought conditions triggered a bearish market signal. Failures at important resistance from the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and IWM each reinforced the bearish signal. However, the relatively mild trading action and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The suspense at the overbought threshold ended without resolution. In a surprising, and even bizarre, display of performance divergence, small caps led the way higher while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ ended the day flat. Moreover, IWM and the NASDAQ faded from important resistance at their bear market lines. Additionally, the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Get used to it. The economy continues to unfold in unexpected ways. An exceptionally strong July jobs report threw some cold water on the breathless expectations on Wall Street for a recession. As one journalist commented on Marketplace, today’s economic context is a strange one with so many talking about a recession … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Market breadth was last this high 17 months ago. At that time, my favorite technical indicator was on its way down as a part of another buy-the-dip moment for the pandemic-inspired rally in the stock market. This time, market breadth is sitting right on top of the threshold of overbought conditions. The … Read more
In “What Recession? Market Shows Love As Apple Leads the Way“, I raised a yellow flag on a critical test for the market at the overbought threshold. I described the conditions dividing the market from a bearish reversal and an extended bullish rally. The stock market left the situation in suspense by gapping down, falling … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Once again, Apple Inc (AAPL) became a poster child of market sentiment. When AAPL pulled away from resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below), the move looked like a tease with bear market conditions still in force. Two weeks later, AAPL emerged vindicated as a 3.3% post-earnings gain … Read more