ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary The seasonal trade on home builders ended in the middle of one of those critical junctures for these stocks and the housing market in general. Mortgage rates are done coming down for now and could break to new highs as the Federal Reserve continues hiking short-term rates to battle inflation. … Read more
Uptrend in ITB: An Observation of 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages The calendar for the seasonal trade in home builders has come to an end. Yet, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) looks as strong as ever. The uptrend in ITB is well-defined by a primary uptrend in the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The U.S.’s looming debt ceiling crisis is a manufactured emergency. The whole political wrangling could end in an instant with a very simple decision to keep budget negotiations in the budget process. Thus, the stock market’s relative calm about the political stalemate does not surprise me. Moreover, who are the motivated sellers … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The fresh hope from a peak in mortgage rates has expanded into an ever stronger spring selling season for the housing market. Despite double digit year-over-year declines keeping existing home sales and housing starts in recessions, new home sales have almost reversed all their losses since the Fed started hiking … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Yes. The stock market can be both complacent and oversold. A week ago I described how stocks left regional banks behind. Last week, the overall market took comfort in the on-going, yet narrowing, strength in big cap tech stocks even as industrials and other economically sensitive stocks stumbled into weakness. The resulting … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Real estate is local. Regional banks often sit at the heart of local communities. So it seems odd writing about the relative strength in the housing market in the wake of the Panic of 2023 that featured the historic collapse of two regional banks, Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and Signature … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I described a housing market that shows signs of stabilization. That stabilization continues despite a strong rebound in mortgage rates. Mortgage rates now look like a renewed risk to the housing market. However, the uptrend in most of the stocks of home builders are … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I laid out the case for bracing for what 2023 would bring even as “faint signs of a bottoming for sentiment have started to appear.” The latest housing data and industry expectations suggest that the market is well-braced for 2023. The signs of bottoming … Read more
Introduction The U.S. housing market follows a seasonal pattern. The spring selling season represents the year’s peak of home sales. During this time, households try to settle into a new home before summer travel or well ahead of the Fall start to the next school year. The stocks of home builders also approximate a seasonal … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A continued respite from rising rates gave some breathing room for new home sales to stabilize in November while existing home sales continued to plunge with a dearth of inventory helping to suck air out of the room. Housing starts continued to plunge in parallel with home builder sentiment. However, … Read more